Wildfire smoke exposure has significant economic impacts on California’s licensed cannabis industry

Abstract California (USA) supports the largest legal cannabis market in world, yet faces increasing risk from wildfire. While anecdotal evidence of impacts to crops has been documented during recent extreme fire seasons, economic losses resulting smoke exposure and other indirect effects (e.g., ash fall, mandatory evacuations, power outages) are not well understood. We conducted an online survey licensed farms across state, reporting wildfire on 2018 through 2021. summarized regional variation reported crop losses, fit a hierarchical multinomial model assess proximity crops, trained random forest make impact predictions for all state-licensed outdoor farms. found that experienced wildfire-related growing regions 2020, but northern particularly high loss four study years. also was stronger predictor than The output our suggested substantial industry with predicted between 4.54% 21.61% statewide, 9.09% 42.83% northernmost counties. Estimated potential 2020 2021 were as $1.44 billion $970.04 million, respectively—losses which themselves exceed annual values many California’s agricultural commodities. Together results indicate whole. suggest more attention be given strategies mitigating wildfires, especially light occurrence severity under climate change.